Joseph Zambon
Summary
- NY22 – Williams (R-I) vs Mannion (D) – Lean Democrat – Winner: ???
- NY23 – Langworthy (R-I) vs Carle (D) – Solid Republican – Winner: Langworthy
- NY24 – Tenney (R-I) vs Wagenhauser (D) – Solid Republican – Winner: Tenney
- NY25 – Morelle (D-I) vs Sadwick (R) – Solid Democrat – Winner: Morelle
- NY26 – Kennedy (D-I) vs Marecki (R/C) – Solid Democrat – Winner: Kennedy
Federal Election Commission Reports on Finances for Western New York Congressional Races
Data from the Federal Election Commission shows only one competitive race this year in the Western New York Congressional Elections. As Ken Kruly describes in his excellent blog, “Politics and Other Stuff,” filings with the Federal Election Commission are “one indication of where campaigns stand and if the opposition is posing a serious threat.”
The graph below is compiled from data the Federal Election Commission provided as of August 11, 2024. It lists in numerical order from left to right the candidates in the 22nd, 23rd, 24th, 25th, and 26th New York Congressional districts from Western and Central New York. The labels on each candidate show their party – D = Democrat or R- Republican – and the current office holder – I = Incumbent.
Incumbents in Western New York Congressional Races Far Outpace Challengers in Fund Raising
All incumbents in Western New York’s congressional districts, with the exception of the representative from the 22nd district, boast a formidable fundraising advantage over challengers for the upcoming elections.
The Cook Report, a trusted source for political race analysis, classifies the 22nd district, currently represented by Republican Brandon Williams, as “lean Democrat.” This distinction is unique nationwide, making it the sole congressional district, irrespective of party control, that Cook considers leaning towards the opposing party.
Let’s examine the status of races in the five Western New York congressional districts, starting with the 23rd and leaving the 22nd for last.
NY23
Republican Incumbent Nick Langworthy vs
Retired Food Executive, Democrat Thomas Carle
Solid Republican District, R+12
In the 23rd district, Republican incumbent Nick Langworthy has raised nearly ninety times more money as Democratic challenger Thomas Carle, a retired plant manager with scant electoral experience. Given the district’s over 700,000 residents, it’s surprising that Democrats couldn’t find a more robust candidate. It’s likely that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (the D triple C) and the New York State Democratic Committee approached numerous potential candidates before settling on Carle.
Carle has directed sharp criticism at Langworthy. On his website, he asserts, “Congressional competence and motivation have hit an all-time low. The most extreme elements of the Republican party dominate the conversation, yet they fail to legislate effectively. My opponent is a prime example of the ‘do little to nothing’ faction.“ (my italics and bolding).
Cook deems the 23rd as solidly Republican (R+12). Langworthy is near certain to win re-election.
NY24
Republican Incumbent Claudia Tenney vs
Former Brockport Trustee Democrat David Wagenhauser
Solid Republican District, R+11
In the 24th district, Republican Claudia Tenney from New Hartford has over seventy times as much money as Democratic challenger David Wagenhauser.
Wagenhauser is a commendable candidate with a strong background – Brockport Village Trustee – and local roots. Unlike Tenney, he has lived in this district most of his life. Regardless, Tenney will secure re-election in this solidly Republican district.
The 24th district was re-drawn post-2020 census and is now among the 193 “solid Republican” districts according to the Cook Report.
Previously, Tenney served in the House as representative from the 22nd district, which is more evenly split between Republicans and Democrats. She elected to the House eight years ago after Republican incumbent Richard Hanna retired. Tenney’s relationship with Hanna was fraught with tension; she had unsuccessfully challenged him in the primary, and unsurprisingly, Hanna withheld his endorsement. Despite Trump’s active support, including an in-person campaign visit to the district in 2018, Tenney was defeated for re-election by Utica Democrat Anthony Brindisi. She narrowly reclaimed her seat in 2020 by 109 votes, with the final result delayed until February 2021. Her return to Congress was closely tied to Trump’s coattails, as he won the 22nd district with 54% of the vote.
Following redistricting, Tenney abandoned her bid for re-election in the perilous 22nd district and shifted her focus to the 23rd district in the Southern Tier. However, after Republicans contested the Democratic redistricting plan for New York State, the election map was redrawn to favor Republicans in the 24th district. Tenney wisely decided to run in the 24th district, which stretches from Niagara County along Lake Ontario to the St. Lawrence River. This choice was supported by the New York Republican State Committee. With the 23rd district seat open following the withdrawal of Chris Jacobs over the issue of gun control, the Republican state chairman, Nick Langworthy was free to run and then win the 23rd district seat for himself.
This year, Tenney faced a Republican primary challenge from Mario Fratto, who had also primaried her two years ago. Fratto’s attempt to oust Tenney mirrored Tenney’s attempt to oust Hanna. Despite Fratto’s strong local presence in the 24th district and his prominent family name, Tenney prevailed in both primaries. Fratto’s bid to outflank Tenney on the right was an uphill battle, given her already far-right stance. However, Tenney benefited from her incumbency and Trump’s endorsement. Trump labeled Fratto a “RINO” – Republican In Name Only – a term Fratto used against Tenney. Tenney’s victory in this primary was even more decisive than before, likely signaling the end of Fratto’s political ambitions for the 24th seat.
Incumbents never welcome primary challenges; Hanna resisted Tenney’s challenge, and Tenney opposed Fratto’s challenge. Tenney’s frustration with Fratto became evident when Fratto released a secret recording he made of a conversation with Tenney in which she described making secret recordings of Fratto. You can’t make this stuff up.
NY25
Democrat Incumbent Joe Morelle vs
Republican Businessman David Wagenhauser
Solid Democratic District, D+7
In the 25th district centered around Rochester, Democrat incumbent Joe Morelle holds a commanding financial advantage over Republican challenger Greg Sadwick. Sadwick’s campaign is almost entirely self-funded. Of the $256,955 reported by the Federal Election Commission, $250,000 is a personal loan from Sadwick to himself.
Cook categorizes the 25th district as “solid Democrat,” making Morelle’s re-election this Fall virtually assured.
NY26
Democrat Incumbent Tim Kennedy vs
Republican Attorney Anthony Marecki
Solid Democratic District, D+9
In the 26th district centered around Buffalo, Tim Kennedy wields an overwhelming financial advantage over attorney Anthony Marecki, the uncontested winner of the Republican primary. Its rumored that Marecki is a “placeholder” candidate that was never replaced by the Republican Party. This is consistent with the lack of financial reporting to the Federal Elections Committee as shown below.
Kennedy, a long-time New York State senator, triumphed over Gary Dickson, West Seneca supervisor, in a special election this past Spring following the resignation of long-serving representative Brian Higgins, who became president at Shea’s Theatre. In the special election, Kennedy won 67% of the vote to Dickson’s 33%. Kennedy was especially strong in the Erie County part of the district – 71% vs 29% but less so in the Niagara County part of the district – 56% vs 44%.
NY22
Republican Incumbent Brandon Williams vs
Democratic NYS Senator John Mannion
Lean Democratic D+1
This brings us to the 22nd district centered around Syracuse, the only congressional seat out of 435 seats across the country that Cook lists as “Lean Democrat” where the incumbent is a Republican.
NY22 is represented by Brandon Williams, a one-term congressman elected two years ago. As a far-right MAGA Republican, Williams faces significant challenges in his district, less solidly Republican than Langworthy’s NY23 or Tenney’s NY24 districts. Despite his efforts to project a moderate image, his true colors occasionally emerge.
I previously detailed Williams’ problematic behavior in the post, “Rep. Brandon Williams Has An Anger Management Problem,” which covered an explosive incident at a crowded D.C. Christmas party last Fall.
Williams aggressively threatened his former chief of staff and campaign manager, saying, “I’ll end every relationship that you have,” and provoking an innocent bystander with, “Hey, why don’t you get the police in?” When he noticed the incident was being recorded, he violently swatted the phone from the staffer’s hand. Michael Gordon, the recipient of Williams’ tirade, described the encounter as “very traumatic” and feared a physical assault.
"...frankly, all the leftists Marxists that know she’s [Vice President Kamala Harris] one of them..."
On July 25, 2024, Williams appeared on the right-wing Todd Starnes Radio Show to comment on recent campus protests and Vice President Kamala Harris’s absence from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s address to a joint session of Congress, though she later met with him privately.
Williams’ focus on Harris’s absence, alongside the absence of 40 Democrats but forgiving the absence one Republican House member and Republican vice presidential candidate J.D. Vance, represents a typical Republican talking point. This narrative mirrors similar rants from Langworthy (R-NY24) and Stefanik (R-NY21).
Part of the transcript from his call…
Todd Starnes: You had Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg, uh, both sending out statements condemning the behavior of those people. But at the same time, you know, she’s out there denouncing antisemitism when she was not present to hear Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu address Congress yesterday.”
Brandon Williams: “Right, that’s playing both sides which isn’t going to work by the way. umm. You know everybody that’s a patriot sees through her completely and then, frankly, all the leftists Marxists that know she’s one of them uh, ya know, don’t like it. They police their own. And uh, they call her out for uh, defending the flag and they’re attacking her for defending our flag. Uh ya know, even though we all know it’s disingenuous. So umm, we have to keep putting pressure to expose these people for who they are. And they’re here to destroy our country. They’re here to tear down our institutions. Here to take over our education system…They’re attacking the police, Todd. They’re attacking the police right in our nation’s capital.”
Williams made this call from Washington, DC, where he’s comfortable wielding far-right, MAGA rhetoric, hoping that folks back home in his Central New York district remain unaware of his radical views.
He disparages Vice President Harris saying that she’s defending the flag but not really defending the flag. He labels her a “leftist Marxist”—a term from the Republican smear glossary that raises the question: are there “right-wing” Marxists? Or is he simply a right-wing extremist?
Williams asserts that Harris and others aim to dismantle the country, destroy institutions, and hijack education. However, it is the MAGA agenda that seeks to undermine institutional trust and seize control of education. Republicans, not Democrats, are pushing for the elimination of the Department of Education.
Williams also laments attacks on police, conveniently overlooking the January 6th insurrection, when thousands of Trump supporters violently attacked law enforcement defending the nation’s Capitol, leading to the deaths of four officers.
More about this race in future posts.