Today (June 24th) marks the second anniversary of the Dobbs decision by the U.S. Supreme Court depriving women of their reproductive rights, rights that had been in effect for 50 years. As we barrel toward the national elections where abortion rights will be on the ballot, now would be a good time to examine the Western New York congressional delegation and where each of our representatives stand on woman’s reproductive rights.
Western New Yorkers are represented by four congressmen in the U.S. House of Representatives. All four are up for re-election this November. They are Nick Langworthy representing the NY-23rd district which includes counties of the southern tier, Claudia Tenney representing the NY-24th congressional district which runs along the southern and eastern shore of Lake Ontario, Joe Morelle representing the NY-25th congressional district which includes Rochester and its environs, and Tim Kennedy, the recent winner of a special election to represent the NY-26th congressional district which includes the Buffalo area. In the heavily gerrymandered New York congressional districts, Morelle and Kennedy are Democrats representing Democratic districts – D+7 and D+9, respectively, according to the Cook Partisan Voting Index. Langworthy and Tenney are MAGA, rabidly pro-Trump Republicans representing heavily Republican districts – R+12 and R+11 respectively, according to the Cook Partisan Voting Index. Democrats Morelle and Kennedy are pro-choice politicians, while Republicans Langworthy and Tenney are stridently anti-abortion politicians.
However, Langworthy’s and Tenney’s anti-abortion positions place them in direct conflict with the pro-choice views of most Americans and most of their consituents in the New York 23rd and 24th congressional districts.
The Most Recent Gallup Poll Shows Most Americans Support Reproductive Rights
According to the most recent Gallup poll, most Americans believe abortion should be legal. 85% of Americans think abortion should be legal either under any circumstance or under certain circumstances while 12% of Americans believe abortion should be illegal under all circumstances. The Gallup poll is supported by a KFF poll that finds 2/3’s of the public support a law guaranteeing a federal right to abortion – 86% of Democrats, 67% of independents. This is opposed by 57% of Republicans.
The number of Americans who identify as pro-choice increased after the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision. That decision overturned Roe v Wade, a previous Supreme Court decision that had guranteed women’s reproductive rights across the country for the past fifty years. The Dobbs decision deprived women of their reproductive rights and ostensibly left decisions about women’s reproductive rights up to individual states. That attempt by the Trump Supreme Court to shift the blame has, it is fair to say, led to national chaos. Some women have fled their home states to get medical care they need while other women have had forced pregnancies even in cases of rape, incest or where their health has been endangered.
Now 54% of Americans support a woman’s right to choose as opposed to 41% who do not. Prior to the Dobbs decision, no more than 50% of Americans identified as pro-choice as far back as 1995.
Consistent with polling showing most Americans support reproductive rights, most Americans also oppose fetal heartbeat laws. These laws ban abortions after a fetal heartbeat can be detected, usually around the sixth week of pregnancy. Fetal heartrbeat bills are also known as the “6-week abortion ban”.
In spite of the electorates clear opposition to abortion restrictions, New York State Asemblyman and Republican Deputy Whip David DiPietro (R-147) introduced anti-abortion legislation to the NYS Assembly. DiPietro introduced a fetal heartbeat bill, that is, a 6-week abortion ban, (A03307) and a separate bill requiring a fetal ultrasound (AO6818) 48 hours before an abortion. Neither of these anti-abortion bills have any chance of becoming law in New York State. Rather than serious legislative proposals, these two DiPietro bills are messaging bills designed to arouse anti-abortionists to get them to the polls and to get political contributions from New Yorkers but mainly from people and institutions outside New York State.
The issue of women’s reproductive rights is becoming, like Social Security, the “third rail” of American politics. The “third rail” metaphor indicates an issue that is so controversial that a politician risks political suicide by having certain points of view.
Since Dobbs, seven abortion-related measures have appeared on the ballot across the country in different states.
All four pro-choice measures passed including one in a Republican controlled state. This happened even after the Republican controlled state legislature in Ohio called a special summer time election to make it harder to pass a state constitutional amendment – “Ohio Issue 1, 60% Vote Requirement to Approve Constitutional Amendments Measure” – which was defeated.
All three pro-choice measures were rejected by voters including one in a Republican controlled state.
Not only does polling show that most Americans support reproductive rights, recent polling also finds that 12% of all voters say abortion is the “most important issue” in their 2024 vote. Politicians should take note of this. There is the potential for catastrophic consequences for anti-abortion candidates like Langworthy and Tenney in the coming elections.
As of today, Langworthy’s 23rd congressional district (770,357 residents) is rated “solid Republican” by the Cook Politial Report, by Sabato’s Crystal Ball and by Inside Elections. This means that the Republicans have a clear edge and that the upcoming election race is not competitive.
In the 2020 presidential election, Trump carried NY23 by 18% – 58.1% for Trump and 39.9% for Biden.
Will the presidential election and abortion ballot initiatives alter the calculus in New York State? Will Trump’s conviction on 34 felony counts reduce his popularity in NY23? How will that affect down-ballot races like that in NY23 and NY24 where incumbents Langworthy and Tenney are rabid Trump supporters?
In the 2022 general election, an off-year election, 297,041 total votes were cast, with 65% (192,694) going to Langworthy. Assume the total votes cast in the November 2024 general election will be about the same as in the last presidential election in 2020, about 320,000. And assume that the Democratic candidate would get between the approx. 129,000 cast for Tracy Mitrano D/Working Families) and the 104,000 votes cast for Max Della Pia in 2022, say 115,000. Would the abortion issue and the felonious presidential candidate be enough for a Democratic candidate to defeat Langworthy?
There is a pro-choice initiative on the ballot this Fall, “New York Equal Protection of Law Amendment,” adding language to the New York Bill of Rights to ensure that people cannot be denied rights based on their “ethnicity, national origin, age, and disability” or “sex, including sexual orientation, gender identity, gender expression, pregnancy, pregnancy outcomes, and reproductive healthcare and autonomy. ” Pro-choice voters in NY23 and across the state will be motivated to go to the polls.
A candidate needs about 150,000 votes to win in NY23. Assuming a good candidate, 115,000 votes is the Democratic base number from the average of the 2020 and 2022 elections.
Where could a Democratic candidate pull 35,000 votes? That’s a lot of votes in a very Republican district.
Let’s look only at the polling on reproductive rights and disregard the felonious presidential candidate issue for the moment. Although he doesn’t advertise it, Langworthy is strongly pro-life and will vote against legislation protecting women’s reproductive rights.
In NY23, the distribution of women to men voters is about 51/49 (from the last census). And 40% of Republicans favor reproductive rights.
Based on the polling, the census data, and the upcoming Democratic national campaign that will focus on Trump’s anti-abortion laws, there are potentially 33,000 votes that could shift to a strong pro-choice Democratic candidate.
Again, that is without considering the effect on down-ballot races of having a convicted felon at the top of the Republican ticket.
It looks like the Democrats had trouble finding an experienced candidate to run against Langworthy. They came up with Thomas Carle from Chautauqua County. He’s a first-time congressional candidate and a retired plant manager who has worked in corporate human resources.
Unlike previous candidates, Carle will have only one line, the Democratic line, on the ballot. He won’t have the Working Parties line. He’s listed as “Withdrawn or Disqualified.” Langworthy will have two lines, the Republican and Conservative lines.
According to Open Secrets, as of June 5, 2024, the Langworthy campaign has raised an impressive $1,175,004, with $433,139 already spent and $832,334 still on hand. Unfortunately, there is no available data on the funds raised by Carle’s campaign, leaving us to wonder about his financial standing.
Carle’s campaign website lists “Defending Women’s Reproductive Rights” as second among 17 issues. On the website, he writes, “There is no issue of more importance than a woman’s right to make her own decisions regarding the size and timing of her family.”
So, for the Democrats, this is a first-time candidate with no name recognition, a single line on the ballot, and no campaign funds. He is running against a person who was formerly chair of the NYS Republican Party. He has two lines on the ballot and a big advantage in fundraising.
It’s looking like the Langworthy—Max Della Pia race all over again. That ended with Langworthy winning by 30%.
Claudia Tenney is running for re-election in NY24. That is a little different story. She’ll be the subject of a future post assuming she wins her primary against Mario Fratto. She’s spent $1.5 million compared to Fratto’s $88,000. That tells you something about her concern about winning the primary.