Joseph Zambon
Trump Supporter Brandon Williams’ (R-NY22) Re-Election Bid Is Not Going Well
Summary
- Brandon Williams is losing ground in his re-election bid
- Cook Political Report lists the NY-22 congressional district as “Lean Democrat” and D+3.
- This is the only congressional race in the country that Cook lists as favoring the candidate from the opposing party.
- Cook shows a trend favoring Democrats in NY22 from D+1 to D+3.
- Split Ticket calculates the probability of Democratic challenger John Mannion winning the election as 73% to 23% for Williams.
- Williams’ opposition to the Chips and Science Act that is bringing tens of thousands of jobs to his district and his opposition to a woman’s right to choose puts him at odds with his constituents
Trump supporter Rep. Brandon Williams, the freshman Republican congressman from New York’s 22nd district—which encompasses the Syracuse-Rome-Utica area—is seeking re-election against Democrat New York State Senator John Mannion.
The Cook Political Report, an independent and non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and political trends across the US has categorized Williams’ district as “lean Democrat.” Remarkably, Williams’ district is the only one in the country where a Republican-held seat is listed as “lean Democrat.”
Additionally, the trend appears to be moving in Mannion’s favor. A few weeks ago, Cook rated NY22 as D+1, indicating a slight Democratic advantage. The rating has now shifted to D+3, reflecting a growing edge for the Democratic challenger and a diminishing position for Williams.
For context, incumbents are running for re-election in all four congressional districts in Western New York—NY23, NY24, NY25, and NY26.
In NY23, Republican Nicholas Langworthy is the incumbent, and Cook Political Report rates the district as R+13. Claudia Tenney, also a Republican, represents NY24, rated R+12. In contrast, Elise Stefanik, the #4 Republican in House leadership as chair of the Republican Conference, rates lower than either Langworthy or Tenney. She represents NY21, which Cook rates as R+10.
Democrat Joe Morelle holds NY25, which is rated D+8. Democrat Tim Kennedy won a special election to replace Brian Higgins. Kennedy represents NY26, which is rated D+10.
According to Cook, “Solid Republican” districts range from R+4 to R+33, and “Solid Democrat” districts range from D+2 to D+40. Why a D+3 rating as in NY22 is not classified as “Solid Democrat” remains unclear.
Split Ticket also analyzes election trends similar to those of the Cook Political Report. Its analysis indicates a nationwide shift in projected control of the House of Representatives from Republicans to Democrats following President Biden’s decision to withdraw from the race.
According to Split Ticket’s model, Democrat John Mannion is projected to win NY22 with a 73% probability, compared to incumbent Brandon Williams’ 27%. That is, Split Ticket projects Mannion has a 3:1 advantage over Williams.
As noted in a previous post, Split Ticket predicts the other incumbents in Western New York’s congressional districts will almost certainly be re-elected. Like the Cook Political Report, Split Ticket assigns Claudia Tenney (R-NY24), Nicholas Langworthy (R-NY23), and Tim Kennedy (D-NY26) a 100% probability of re-election. For Joe Morelle (D-NY25), the probability is 99%
Why Is Williams’ Re-Election Campaign Struggling?
Several factors are contributing to the projected failure of incumbent Brandon Williams’ to win re-election:
1. Focus of the New York State Democratic Party: Led by Governor Kathy Hochul, the New York State Democratic Party is intensely focused on reclaiming five House seats lost in the previous election. Republicans captured four seats on Long Island, including two pickups and two open upstate seats, and also defeated Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, who had led the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. These five losses not only cost Democrats control of the House of Representatives but also led to Nancy Pelosi losing the speakership. Pelosi attributed the loss of the Democratic majority in the House of Representatives to the loss of the New York seats, noting that it was related to the gubernatorial race.
Prior to the election, the NY Court of Appeals had overturned the Democrats’ aggressive redistricting map, ruling it was “drawn with unconstitutional partisan intent.” The court-appointed master created more favorable districts for Republicans, including NY22, which Republican Williams won, and NY17, which Democrat Maloney lost. Kathy Hochul’s poor performance in her re-election also negatively impacted down-ballot candidates.
2. Impact of Redistricting Changes: Williams initially secured his seat thanks to a favorable redistricting plan created by a court-appointed master. However, in February, Democrats introduced a surprisingly moderate new redistricting plan. Even former Republican Congressman John Faso noted, “There are small changes here or there, but none of them are materially significant from a political standpoint.” The only significant alterations were to NY3, held by Democrat Tom Suozzi, and NY22, held by Williams. The reconfigured NY3 (the infamous George Santos seat) is expected to aid Suozzi’s re-election. At the same time, the changes to NY22 will likely benefit Democratic challenger John Mannion, especially given that the reconfigured district supported President Biden +11.6% in 2020.
3. In his 2022 campaign, Williams announced his opposition to the Chips and Science Act, labeling it as a “corporate welfare package for the profitable chip industry.” This position backfired on him, as the Chips and Science Act and State Senator John Mannion’s Green Chips legislation played crucial roles in Micron’s decision to invest $100 billion in a massive computer chip manufacturing facility in the Syracuse area. This project is set to create 9,000 jobs over the next 20 years, with an additional 40,000 jobs in supply chain and construction. It represents the largest private investment in New York’s history.
In an attempt to mitigate the fallout from his opposition to the Chips and Science Act, Williams is now expressing reluctant support for Governor Hochul and Senator Schumer’s efforts in securing the Micron project. He also tries to align himself with the “team” facilitating this project. However, his claim to be part of the “team” is ridiculous, especially considering the headline above. Governor Hochul wants him off the team and out of Congress.
4. Williams has not escaped public scrutiny for his widely publicized violent outburst at a Christmas party last year, where he was recorded confronting a former staffer. The video, which shows Michael Gordon visibly terrified by Williams—”I thought he was going to take a swing at me!”—remains widely circulated on YouTube.
Despite efforts by his communications director to minimize the incident by highlighting Williams’ military service from 25 years ago, the incident has harmed his reputation. As I described in an earlier post, Williams’ misconduct would likely have led to the revocation of his security clearance and his position as a nuclear missile officer during his naval service.
What’s especially concerning is Williams’ attempt to use his family to justify his actions. Politico referenced this by writing, “Williams’ remarkable decision to go public about the feud is a bet that his political future will be improved by laying out its highly personal details.“
If given the chance, Williams, Langworthy, and Tenney would all vote "Aay" for a nationwide abortion ban.
5. Williams’ stance on abortion starkly contrasts with the prevailing views held by the majority of residents in NY22 and across the nation. According to Pew Research, the majority of both men (61%) and women (64%) support legal abortion. Among younger adults under 30, a staggering 76% believe abortion should be legal in all or most cases. This support remains strong across age groups: 61% of adults in their 30s and 40s, 57% of those in their 50s and early 60s, and even 59% of those aged 65 and older share this belief.
While Williams is within his rights to “vote his conscience,” as he often claims, voters are just as entitled to elect representatives who truly reflect their views. Unfortunately for NY22, Williams, along with his Republican colleagues Langworthy (R – NY23) and Tenney (R – NY24), are clearly out of step with the majority of their constituents on this critical issue. If given the opportunity, Williams, Langworthy, and Tenney would all vote “Ay” for a nationwide abortion ban. This is precisely why Republicans are scrambling to distance themselves from the abortion issue in this election cycle.